The Big and the Small

I just finished reading Malcom Gladwell's random collection of stories*. It was an entertaining read and there were a few interesting take-aways.

1. Remote misses can be a big advantage.
   When we encounter hard times and survive, there are 2 possible outcomes:
• A near miss - we get hurt badly, are unable to get up, and are crushed. This is bad.
• A remote miss - we get hurt, but somehow manage to overcome the difficulty and develop a layer of immunization. We might also develop strong compensating skills enroute.
There are always remote-misses in a large-scale disaster that allow us to bounce back as a community.
2. Change your pond, if it is too big
   We usually evaluate ourselves based only on the local population we are part of. When we feel like a small fish in a big pond, perhaps we should change the pond such that we are a big fish in a small pond!
3. Too much can be as crippling as too little.
   The law of diminishing returns is quite pervasive. This means that
• Having less resources might be advantageous, when you are competing against someone who has more than the optimal amount of resource.
• If you are the big guy, you can't always keep throwing more resources at a problem. After a point, it makes more sense to force a constraint instead.

In summary, If you are the underdog, you can become the champion by changing the rules to match your strengths. What looks like a disadvantage, need not be one!

*My theory is that he had a book of "stories" that was getting filled up too fast, so he decided to encash a bunch of them under the vaguely relevant title "David and Goliath". It was a fun read though.. lots of interesting stories!

Decisions vs. Decision Processes

Following up on my previous posts, one of the key points reinforced in the book is to pay attention to the decision making process, instead of the decision itself.

I was discussing this with my dad when he shared 2 anecdotes - 

1. When my uncle did really well in his high school, many elders / mentors suggested he move to a bigger city for better and greater opportunities. My grandfather wasn't too keen (change is difficult - plus there were job perks associated with their current location), but grandmom forced the issue and it was to be Vellore or Chennai.

Everything favoured Vellore. It was closer. Decent college. Nice city. Grandfather could get a transfer.

Chennai was the bigger city, and it didnt have much else going for it. Nevertheless it was deemed that the choice was best made by the Gods. An elaborate ceremony followed, offerings were made, and God's will was focussed onto a ballot. God picked Vellore. Mentors prevailed though, God was ignored and he went to Chennai. It was definitely the better decision and was instrumental in opening up doors and ushering in financial stability for the family.

2. Soon after coming to Chennai, he got a promotion and was assigned to a town called Gwalior half-way across the country. No-one in my family had heard of the place before, nor knew anyone who knew about it. So it was decided to keep things simple, reject the promotion and stay in Chennai. Until the officer in Gwalior, worried that he couldn't go back home if my uncle rejected the offer, personally came over to re-assure him and convinced him to go. Good decision again, it gave him more exposure and pushed his career forward. 

Both were decisions with positive long term results, and the "right" things to do in hindsight. But the process to decide them was non-existent, and borderline hilarious. There was no strong reasoning, and the decisions could have swayed one way or the other purely based on external forces.

To rephrase the Bhagvat Gita a little, my take-away is this:

"You have the right to create a decision making process, but you are not entitled to the fruits of the decisions you make.

And do not let the fruit be the purpose of your process, so you won’t be attached to the lack of a process."

What do you watch for when you make decisions?

I just finished the fantastic book "Decisive" by Chip and Dan Heath. Here is my compressed cheat sheet. Do read the book - it is full of examples and useful nuggets on how we can build a better decision making process.

So, there are 4 main villains of decision making

1. Narrow framing
2. Confirmation Bias
3. Short term emotion
4. Overconfidence

So, how do you counter them?

Here is a list of questions to ask yourself when you are making a decision

1. Narrow frame -> Widen your options

• Are you asking a "whether or not" question?
• What else could you do with the same amount of resources?
• What if you current options disappeared?
• How can you try multiple options at the same time?
• Are you stuck in the prevention / promotion mindset?
• How do you find someone who has already solved a similar problem?
• Can you think of analogies, inside and outside your scope, of similar problems?

2. Confirmation Bias -> Reality-Test your assumptions

• What would have to be true for the opposite opinion to be the very best choice?
• What facts would have to be true for your assumption to be wrong? Find those facts and check them.
• Are you too caught up in an assumption? Have you tried making a deliberate mistake?
• Are you too zoomed in? If so, try zooming out
• Get a broader (average) picture. Experts are good at giving you this.
• Are you too zoomed out?
• Zoom in : Get a close-up view of a sample
• Did you try doing a trial run? (except when you need commitment)

3. Short term emotion -> Attain distance

• How would this decision affect you in 10 hour /10 months /10 year
• Are you going with the flow (familiarity)?
• Are you over-emphasized on avoiding losses?
• What would you tell your best friend to do?

4. Overconfidence -> Prepare to be wrong

• What would happen in the best case? How can you prepare?
• What would happen in the worst case? How can you prepare?
• Have you set tripwires to revisit this decision in the future?

Finally, here are some good practices to follow generally to make better decisions:

• Build a playlist of questions to ask for different types of decisions
• Define and focus core priorities
• Build a "Stop doing" list
• Ask every once in a while : Am I doing what I most need to be doing now?
• Focus on the process, and less on the decision.
• In a team, decisions must be seen as fair even if they are not favorable.
• Bargaining helps
• Procedural justice is imporant
• State back the other side
• Defend a decision by pointing out flaws